June 2014

First publication of the AUGURY project in G3

The first publication of the AUGURY project is about predictability of convection flow in the Earth’s mantle. Léa Bello is the first author of this work.

We estimated for the first time how far in the past or in the future we can predict the flow in the Earth’s mantle. Like currents in the atmosphere, flow in the mantle of the Earth is chaotic. Because of the famous butterfly effect, there is a limit in our ability to generate accurate predictions. For weather forecast it is about 2 weeks. For mantle convection in the Earth we estimated it to be about 95My.

Check the full paper here: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GC005254/abstract

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